I have discussed this in some detail. The basic issue here is one called Signal to Noise Ratio (S/N Ratio). This gets technical fast. This has to do with seeing the variations in a signal, in this case data on Temperatures. Now changes in the signal information do not inherently represent any information on any topic. The first thing you must do is extract the baseline temperature so that changes can be assigned to the postulated cause in this case CO2 induced warming. This is a hard core scientific analysis method and I apologize for covering statistical and quantitative data.
So lets look at the baseline data sources. The first thing you have to understand is that we really don’t have a large amount of “baseline” data. This also involves establishing the “error bars” so that we know what the signal is. Remember one of the rules of a S/N ratio is that the factor we are looking at for “cause” must be able to produce 10 times more signal than the known variability of base signal. Otherwise you cannot reliably extract any reliable conclusion.
So the amount of data we do have is a record worldwide from the late 1970’s to the present. This is less than 50 years. This data is from satellite measurements. Prior to that we have a substantial data set extending back to 1945 but is is by no means global.
to that we have a fairly limited data set most of which is actually from the USA and it goes back to 1880’s. Prior to that time the quality of data diminishes dramatically back to the 1800 time period and is basically non-existent prior to that.
Glacier data from Greenland and Antarctica which does indicate the same things and carries the record back to about 150,000 years back according to the researchers on Greenland and back closer to 900,000 years from Antarctica. We also have pretty substantial Geologic data that has gross indicators of events in the past. The problem with this data is that it rapidly loses accuracy further and further back in time.
Now there are several points of the data here and this is a sample. The error bars if you will to establish the shows that the temperature has been quite variable. It has in the last 15,000 years naturally variable to as much as 10C warmer than the present and close to 20C colder than present. This brackets the Error Bars. Literally to observe a temperature it first would have to fall outside of the data, but not by 2C (like the IPCC has been discussing) The S/N analysis here requires the temperature to fall outside of this range of temperatures by 10x to be able to say that the number is reliably a “signal”. Even if you cut this down to 2x observed it would have to fall widely outside any observed data.
Now don’t let the (C) measure fool you the only measure that is valid is absolute temperature (K) This variation of temperature on this graph which is about 10+/20- (C) that is just over 10% on absolute scale. That is your error bar range. This means you cannot extract a signal unless the variation is extremely wide.
Here is an absolute scale graph of the Planetary data (whole earth) of temperature and CO2.
The numbers on the bottom are month counts since the test measurements started.
The remark comes in (“The flattest line I have ever seen”) regards any temperature changes. This isn’t even slightly close to some indicator (CO2) driving temperature.
Now let’s be very clear here this is so solid you cannot imagine to see a signal. It is pure delusion to imagine that there is a signal in the data indicating CO2 is driving temperature at all. There literally is no signal. In fact you have an obvious absence of signal. There isn’t even the finest data to indicate a warming associated with CO2.
What you are looking at can conclusively be shown that there is NO substance to the claims of “Global Warming” or “Climate Change” data.
Actually as an observation, this data is so flat that we could easily have expected a lot more variance than we have seen. It could have easily been entirely natural and 10 C warmer or 10 C colder. As such the only conclusion the data can give us, is that we live in the most boring times in Earth history. It could without warning take off and move 10 C warmer and 20 C colder and just be normal!
Any attempt to read into measurements any man caused temperature change and climate change here is really stretching the science too far.
To assist you and seeing this a little better. Here is a much more detailed data set on Greenland.
There are other issues to show you that the data is goofy when you try to mine it too deeply, NOAA weather stations in the USA have 95% of them serious sampling errors due to site problems. This is things like measuring the temperature near to Air Conditioner heat dump devices or next to parking lots.
I can tell you a lot of data more and am not wishing to swamp you with data. The upshot is that there is no data that supports the discussion you are hearing in public.
Yes the data has been manipulated. Yes there is much deception. Here is Dr Mann’s Hockey Stick graph and as you will note it has NO validity.
Dr Michael Mann, has lied to you and it was proved in court! The data in his chart is a combination of Observed data magnified insanely tight. Notice that this scale is 1 C +/- and going back from the dip the stick part was Dendrochronology (tree ring data) It was supposed to be telling us by “tree rings” the temperature.
Look closely at this tree on a sawmill. You cannot extract temperature from tree rings First of all trees grow more with more water. But even one side of the tree to the other they vary. I can tell you this tree started growing amazingly fast. It did very well until it expanded to the point where it got into competition with other trees and slowed down. Trees vary a lot. I used to do millwork for 17 years early in my life. My favorite thing was getting wood that was varied by these things. It makes pretty wood. NO TEMPERATURE DATA can be extracted from Tree Rings. Dr Mann is a fraud.
The best evidence of an invalid theory is that it spends it’s time accusing others and telling lies about them and such. No theory which cannot be defended by open discussion of it’s points is worthy of consideration. Nothing about Global Warming or Climate Change is the truth.
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Look there is no loss of ice mass going on. Antarctic ice is at all time high and had never been measured ever to be higher than right now. We are seeing record cold in the southern hemisphere at this time and just are finishing the second coldest winter ever recorded in the northern hemisphere. cut this crap out of asking questions that insinuate that some warming is going on. We are freezing up not warming up.
It is about time for the people at Quora to stop their propaganda campaign to tell lies by asking lying proposition questions.
Some troll tried to say I was working for “Big Oil”. Just for the record I have never made even $0.01 USD from Big Oil. I have never worked for them and I have never ever gotten money from them. Trolls take note I DELETE YOU AND BLOCK YOU! Comment if you want but make it make sense and make it honest comment. I don’t even mind a comment that is hostile to my point of view, I may even say thanks but THOU SHALT NOT MAKE ACCUSATIONS OR PUBLISH DOGMATIC SCREEDS.
For posters below also don’t come back telling me NASA or NOAA said unless you can show the actual data. NOAA and NASA have lately been the fountain of all lies. I will get you real data and not adjusted stuff
This is what North America looked like about 20,000 years ago at the most recent glacial maximum. Today, as I am sure you are aware, that ice has retreated to the Arctic and the world is generally warmer and wetter and thus far more hospitable to life.
And that is an example of climate change.
· Jan 29
Our Solar System takes 225 million years to make one complete circle of the Milky Way Galaxy, so until we have accumulated 225 million years of data, we are not in a position to suggest what may next, happen, to our little Planet Earth. We have not experienced all the outside influencing effects that our position in the Galaxy plays on the environment of the Earth.
Cosmic influence does effect our weather.
Our Earth has travelled 65 times around our Milky Way Galaxy since the start of the Universe, how little we know. We still cannot define “gravity”, we know it exists, but we don’t know what it is, or how it works, yet with only a couple of hundred years of recorded modern data the Church of AGW/ACC claim to accurately know the future of the Planet.
Science mocks Religious beliefs, yet act exactly like those religions it mocks, by proclaiming year after year that we only have another ten years, that somehow, we, insignificant humans can affect, even effect our Planet, and they keep getting it wrong, we still have rain, we still have snow, our Oceans are still rising as they have for the last three hundred years, Hurricanes, Cyclones, Typhoons and Tornados have lowered both in loss of life and damage, the Oceans are not becoming less alkaline, Coral Reefs are not dying, the Ozone holes come and go.
There is way more to Climate than CO2, yet some “science” has convicted it and want to lock it up and remove it from our atmosphere.
· Jan 28
I used to live just down the street from the Wedgwood Rock in the Wedgwood neighborhood of NE Seattle.
It’s a twenty foot high glacial erratic. Pretty impressive. Delivered from Canada courtesy of the mile-thick Cordilleran Ice Sheet.
Very impressive!
· Feb 3
Seattle is full of glacial artifacts. Those little hills in town are drumlins, and the topsoil below Kent is several thousand feet thick. Which, if Rainier farts, will cause all that soil to turn into pudding.
At least that’s what my geo prof told me when I went to UW back in the late 80s.
· Jan 28
Glad I am alive now and not 20,000 years ago!
The relatively ice-free period we are living in now is called an Interglacial and they usually only last about 15,000 to 20,000 years. So, if you’re lucky, you may see the ice return!
I will have to more careful with my lifestyle to make it till the next glacial period. 🙂
· Sat
The earth has had climate change for all of it’s 4.6 B yrs. We are in a warming cycle of our current ice age one of 5 or 6 ice ages the earth has endured. These are planetary weather cycles our infantile science has no way to alter, not even in the slightest.
· Jan 28
It certainly is an excellent example of climate change – why did it take about 10,000 years then? Our current change seems to have only taken less than 250 years.
“There was a switch to a new state, and the ice sheet began to melt away,” he added. “Coincidentally, when melting took off, the ice sheet began pulling back from the coast and the calving of icebergs diminished. The ice sheet got hammered by surface melt, and that’s what drove final deglaciation.”
Ullman said the level of CO2 that helped trigger the melting of the Laurentide ice sheet was near the top of pre-industrial measurements – though much less than it is today. The solar intensity then was higher than today, he added.
“What is most interesting is that there are big shifts in the surface mass balance that occur from only very small changes in radiative forcing,” said Ullman, who is in OSU’s College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences. “It shows just how sensitive the system is to forcing, whether it might be solar radiation or greenhouse gases.”
· Jan 28
There is no “ current change”. The same one that took10,000 years is still taking place . Don’t you understand?
Oh, I do understand. It’s just that it appears that the current change is happening in hundreds of years (i.e. 350 start to finish) rather than 10,000 years. Don’t you understand?
Ice ages are a matter of orbital mechanics called Milankovitch Cycles. See below.
I know about the Milankovitch cycles – they are not quick, are they. I know about the solar cycles, one of which is quick, about 11 years, but doesn’t have much effect overall, because it is so quick. For other readers: The major component of these (Melankovitch) variations occurs with a period of 405,000 years[7] (eccentricity variation of ±0.012). Other components have 95,000-year and 124,000-year cycles[7] (with a beat period of 400,000 years). They loosely combine into a 100,000-year cycle (variation of −0.03 to +0.02). The present eccentricity is 0.0167 and decreasing. In other words they have an effect but the timescale is longer than human civilisation by a long way. Stephen, what will happen in 80 years when CO2 levels hit 600ppm if we continue at our current rate of emissions? We haven’t seen that level for about 25 million years.
· Jan 31
Inaccurate map…..
Need to add A LOT of land around the perimeter due to lower ocean levels.
· Feb 2
…and man is changing the climate now, good job setting that up!
· Wed
That is called an “Ice Age” they come and go. Look back at the Holocene or Permian Ice Age temps. The very same as what is happening today. And liberals in the UN had nothing to do with it.
· Sat
Irrelevant! What happened more than 10,000 years ago has little to do with what is happening now. The last glaciation ended, the earth’s temperature peaked at the Holocene maximum and we entered a cooling phase that would normally lead to the next glaciation. However, human burning of fossil fuels h…
To have an opinion about climate but, at the same time, say that events 10,000 years ago don’t matter shows that you fall to understand the difference between climate and weather.
I do indeed understand. What I am saying is that humans have disrupted the natural sequence of glacial cycles.